Marin Market Update

The new year's market begins to wake up in January, but buyers typically jump in much faster than new listings arrive on the market. Though new listing activity begins to rise quickly in last 2 weeks of January (after hitting its annual low count in December), there is still a dynamic of increasing demand competing for an insufficient supply of listings. And competition, normally characterized by fast sales and overbidding of asking prices, is the biggest factor in home-price appreciation.

This imbalance in supply and demand commonly runs through the spring months, making them the most heated selling season of the year. (Though we might all remember last year, when this seasonal dynamic had the wind sucked out of it by the tariff shock.) In Marin and San Francisco in particular, the spring market often begins as early as February.

Interest rates are near multi-year lows and stock markets, though recently volatile, remain at or not too far off all-time highs. Al boom wealth is gradually spreading through the Bay Area – we’re already seeing it make its way from Silicon Valley and San Francisco into Marin County.

Though national consumer confidence remains low and employment concerns continue, they don't appear to be seriously impacting the Bay Area. As has been the case in the past 2 years, more affluent buyers seem poised to play an outsized role in demand - and Marin is one of the most affluent counties in the country.

With these factors in mind, and barring new political/economic shocks, we anticipate an early and heated spring market here in Marin and San Francisco.

Sourced from Patrick Carlisle’s report, Compass Chief Market Analyst, with data from Realtor.com research and/or broker metrics.